Who has the most to gain, and the most to lose between Floyd, Manny, Miguel & Timothy?
Any business school student worth their weight in khaki pants and cashmere overcoats can tell you that the “risk/reward ratio” of an investment is, quite simply, the expected returns an investor can anticipate relative to the amount of risk they accept in attempting to seek those returns. Really, it's just a fancy way of asking “is the prize worth the punishment", and it's a concept which can be widely utilized in nearly all facets of life, boxing included.
Especially so when names like Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather surface. In classic “will they/won’t they” fashion which is the staple of romantic comedies and prom dates everywhere, Pacquiao and Mayweather once again went through the motions of teasing the fans into believing that they—two boxers—may actually meet in a boxing match this year. Yet, as predictably as the ending of any M. Night Shyamalan flick since The Sixth Sense, no match was made. Well, not with each other at least.
With a May 5 date in hand which would allow him to get some work in before a brief stay as a guest of the state of Nevada, Mayweather settled—although, it doesn’t seem like much of a consolation prize—on a bout with freshly vindicated Miguel Cotto. On the line will be Cotto’s WBA Junior Middleweight title, meaning that Floyd will move up to 154 pounds for the bout, slated to take place at the MGM Grand.
Unfortunately for Mayweather, the good folks at Top Rank were thinking more along the lines of a June 9 date. The weather is nicer, the kids are on summer vacation and, plus, who doesn’t love a summer fight, right? Well, shortly after Mayweather-Cotto was announced, the boxing world received news of a Pacquiao-Timothy Bradley bout.
So, boxing fans everywhere are deprived of the fight that, quite frankly, some are getting very tired of calling for at this point. Still, we’re left with two decent, if not better-than-average fights to get us through the early portion of summer 2012, and that’s not half-bad.
However, with every fight Mayweather and Pacquiao take that isn’t with each other, the risk grows higher and higher that: a. They’ll never set something up during the peak of their careers, or, b. One will get beaten and the shine that we’ve been putting on that potential match-up will be all but gone.
Looking at the career trajectories of these four fighters essentially begs for a good old-fashioned risk/reward analysis. All have much to gain through victories later this year. Some much more than others
But, do the ends for each warrant the varying levels of risk each brings to their respective match? Let’s take a closer look:
Manny Pacquiao (54-3-2, 38 KOs) vs. Timothy Bradley (28-0-0, 12 KOs)
Clearly, applying risk/reward principles, Bradley has much more to gain, on the face, than does Pacquiao. Sure, putting his undefeated record on the line, as well as possibly being made to look very bad are fairly big risks for Bradley. But the upside to being the man that took down Manny Pacquiao during the height of his dominance is an allure too appealing to pass up.
Plus, honestly, how far would Bradley fall in the eyes of analysts and fans if he were to lose to Pacquiao? Only if he’s soundly and thoroughly defeated would it truly make people rethink Bradley's status. If Bradley loses a close fight, the risk he brought into the bout would almost entirely be mitigated.
For Pacquiao, a loss to Bradley could be devastating, and that’s not overstating it. Critics of “Pacman” have climbed to the mountain tops to proclaim that Manny is suddenly more beatable than ever and that we’re now watching the beginning of a slow decline.
A loss to Bradley—on the cards or on the canvas—would not only appear to justify that criticism, but also make a Pacquiao-Mayweather bout infinitely less intriguing than it would’ve been as of June 8, 2012. The best Pacquiao can hope for from this fight is that he dispatches Bradley with ease, silences the doubters and leaves room in the driveway for the armored car that would accompany a fight with Mayweather.
Floyd Mayweather (42-0-0, 26 KOs) vs. Miguel Cotto (37-2-0, 30 KOs)
Of all four fighters, Miguel Cotto has a chance at the greatest amount of reward, namely becoming the first blemish on the pristine won-loss record of Floyd Mayweather. Like Bradley, Cotto is widely viewed as the underdog with the tools to possibly make a go of it, but too outclassed by his opponent to pull off the unthinkable.
CA very good fighter in his own right, Cotto’s risk of taking on Mayweather is relatively minimal relative to the upshot of pulling off the upset. Although his WBA Junior Middleweight belt will be on the line, one has to think that Cotto is somewhat satisfied with how the last year has gone. A TKO victory over Ricardo Mayorga last March to win the title, followed by satiation of his blood lust to beat Antonio Margarito before Christmas, has set the table for what should be one of the more anticipated big fights of the year.
After all of these years, it’s still hard to determine what Floyd Mayweather loves more: himself or that beautiful, sparkly egg-shaped orb seated directly next to the amount of fights he’s won throughout his illustrious career.
Having gone on record as stating that he wants to one day retire as undefeated, Mayweather has garnered praise from supporters who see him as a driven champion motivated by legacy. Meanwhile, detractors have used it to further their argument that Mayweather intends to stay perfect by ducking the fights he should be taking.
Whenever Mayweather steps into a ring, he’s running the undeniably huge risk of leaving with a loss and, at least in his mind, sullying the legacy he’s worked so hard to craft. Compared to that risk, what is the best reward Floyd can look to take from this fight? Does he truly care about the WBA Junior Middleweight belt? Unlikely. Does he look any better in defeating every top fighter of his day whose name doesn’t rhyme with Annie Macky-ow? Negative. Cotto would be little more than a somewhat satisfying notch in Floyd’s championship belt.
When taken altogether, it seems pretty obvious that Mayweather seems to have the worst risk/reward ratio of the bunch. He gains very little by defeating Cotto but, if the improbable happens and Floyd’s zero goes bye-bye, it may be “Money” that’s going hat-in-hand to the Pacquiao camp.
Conversely, Timothy Bradley looks to have the best risk/reward ratio of the bunch. A victory over Pacquiao will make him a household name and immediately skyrocket “Desert Storm” into an atmosphere—and tax bracket—he has yet to know in his pro career.
