A lot of things would need to go right for Robert Guerrero to defeat Floyd Mayweather when they meet for the welterweight title on May 4.
Guerrero (31-1-1) does not seem to have the cache to get in the ring with Mayweather (43-0-0). He does not have the victories over big-name opponents that would appear to give the fight credibility.
But one thing that Guerrero does have is a belief in himself. He is not taking this fight to be an "opponent" for Mayweather while the champion has a mandatory defense.
Guerrero will be fighting to win. Even though his opponents don't have huge names, he is solid fighter who put on an impressive show when he registered a one-sided decision over Andre Berto in November.
In that fight, the left-handed Guerrero punished Berto early and registered knockdowns in the first and second rounds (source: ESPN.com). Guerrero did not just cruise to the victory after taking the early advantage.
He continued to pound Berto and he basically beat him up for the 12 rounds of the fight.
Guerrero fought Berto while weighing in at 146 1/2 pounds. His previous fight against Selcuk Aydin was at just under 146 pounds as well. Prior to that July, 2012 fight, Guerrero had never fought at more than 138 pounds.
Mayweather fought at 154 pounds last year against Miguel Cotto, but he fought at 147 in his prior fight against Victor Ortiz.
So even though this will be a welterweight fight, Mayweather is the naturally bigger man.
Guerrero has plenty of speed and most fighters find it difficult to hit him with clean shots, hence his nickhame of the Ghost.
But Mayweather is not most fighters. He has made his living at figuring out what other fighters can and can't do and then systematically taking them apart.
He will almost certainly figure out Guerrero's strategy. However, Guerrero throws sharp punches from a number of different angles. He's going to have to get off early and find a way to keep Mayweather on the defensive as soon as possible.
Guerrero is not a knockout artist. He did not knockout Berto even though he pounded him for 12 rounds. He didn't knock out Malcolm Klassen, Joel Casamayor, Vicente Escobedo, Michael Katsidis or Selcuk Aydin.
He hit all of those fighters with clean, hard shots on the button.
If he couldn't stop them, he's not likely to stop Mayweather.
Guerrero's lack of knockout tendencies is probably going to work in his favor. Mayweather is not going to take him seriously. Instead of training hard, Mayweather may be more interested in how his sports bets are turning out (source: Yahoo.com).
The key for Guerrero will be to take advantage of an inattentive Mayweather and throw his punches from as many angles as he can muster and then move out of his way.
Can Guerrero beat Mayweather at his best? No.
But if Mayweather is thinking about a big payday against Saul "Canelo" Alvarez or the long-discussed fight with Manny Pacquiao, Guerrero would have a chance to take it to his undefeated opponent and come up with the surprise.
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