Both Floyd "Money" Mayweather and Robert "The Ghost" Guerrero have won the bulk of their respective fights by way of knockout. But when they lock horns at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night, they will go the distance and the winner will be decided on the scorecards.
Fighters tend to evolve over the course of their careers. And while Mayweather seems to be as quick and evasive now as he was when he started as a professional in 1996, he is much savvier these days. Half of Mayweather's 26 career knockouts came in his first 15 fights when he usually outclassed his opponents.
Mayweather plays things much closer to the vest these days. as his opponents are far more dangerous than they used to be. He was more willing to throw down freely when he was younger because there wasn't much danger in getting caught napping. Mayweather is much smarter and experienced at this point, so he knows what works and what doesn't.
Guerrero definitely has some punching power, as evidenced by his 18 career knockouts, so Mayweather can't let his guard down and go for the gusto. Technically speaking, Mayweather is a superior boxer and he should be able to use his defensive posture to his advantage. Guerrero may try to press the issue, but Mayweather is masterful when it comes to diffusing difficult situations.
While Guerrero has been supremely confident leading up to the fight, he probably knows that knocking Mayweather out is his best chance. With that in mind, expect Guerrero to be the aggressor early in the fight. The problem with that, however, is that Mayweather will likely find a way to stymie Guerrero and frustrate him to the point that he eventually abandons that game plan.
Once that happens, it will be a cat-and-mouse game with very few flurries of action. Mayweather may not be the most exciting boxer in terms of getting involved in all-out brawls, but he is arguably the smartest. He knows that his odds of winning increase the longer the fight lasts, so he'll try to go all 12 rounds if at all possible.
Not only does conventional wisdom suggest that the fight will go to the scorecards, but the betting lines support that notion as well. According to Bovada, the fight going more than 11.5 rounds is a -280 favorite. That means a bettor must wager $280 on the bout going the distance in order to win $100, which obviously isn't a particularly advantageous bet to make.
The odds of the fight ending before 10 full rounds are also fairly long, according to ESPN's Dan Rafael. No matter how you slice it, a 12-round affair is the expectation.
If Mayweather staggers Guerrero at some point, then he'll obviously ramp up the pressure and go for the win. Mayweather generally tries to nickel and dime his opponents, though, so there is no guarantee that he'll even hurt Guerrero at any point.
Guerrero's main issue is squaring up Mayweather. Every fighter tries to be a moving target, but there are ways to corner most of them and generate some combinations. Mayweather is nearly impossible to catch, though, and Guerrero can't knock out what he can't hit. Because of that, he can't afford to chase the knockout all fight long.
As much as Guerrero would probably like to stop the fight early, Mayweather simply won't allow it to happen. Mayweather fully expects to win this fight, but if Guerrero is going to win, he will have to work for it and earn it on the scorecards. A knockout of any kind would be shocking, as Mayweather will essentially dictate how things play out.
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