Adrien "The Problem" Broner is a huge -1200 favorite to defeat Paulie "Magic Man" Malignaggi for the WBA Welterweight Championship on Saturday, according to Bovada, but Malignaggi certainly has some factors working in his favor.
At 32 years of age, he is nine years Broner's senior and he has competed in some big fights. Even though Malignaggi is known as a solid fighter who can't "win the big one," he is in an ideal position to get it done at the Barclays Center in his hometown of Brooklyn, N.Y. on Saturday.
Here are the biggest keys that will decide whether or not Malignaggi is able to pull off a huge upset and hand Broner the first loss of his professional career.
Broner's Move Up in Weight
Boxers move up and down in weight all the time, but it is pretty uncommon for a fighter to jump up two classes from one fight to the next. Broner fought at 135 lbs. as a lightweight in his last bout, but he is moving up 12 lbs. to 147 lbs. in order to fight Malignaggi. Despite the huge change, Broner doesn't seem to lack confidence heading into the fight based on his comments at Thursday's press conference:
I went from 120 to 135 pounds. I’m moving up to 147, two weight divisions, and that has not been done. I’m looking to make history and be the first current American three-time champion, so make sure you [Malignaggi] tell the public he is truly a good fighter.
According to Dan Rafael of ESPN, both men weighed in under the 147-lb. limit on Friday, so everything appears to be in order.
In fact, Broner actually came in a bit heavier than Malignaggi, which is surprising considering the fact that Malignaggi regularly fights at 147 lbs. Broner may have even more power than he is accustomed to on Saturday, but Malignaggi is a bigger fighter than he is used to fighting and that is something that Malignaggi needs to capitalize on.
Broner's Inexperience in Long Fights
As is customary, Malignaggi will put his title on the line in a 12-round affair. Despite the regularity of 12-round fights, Broner has never completed a 12-round fight in his career. His previous five fights were all scheduled to go 12 rounds, but Broner ended all of them in the eighth round or earlier by knockout, so he could experience something brand new on Saturday.
Malignaggi is fully aware of Broner's inexperience in this regard and seems more than willing to take care of it. Malignaggi even referenced a conversation he had with Broner prior to Broner facing Daniel Ponce de Leon back in 2011. Broner was concerned about fighting 10 rounds and Malignaggi hasn't forgotten.
You remember in that locker room at Wild Card Gym a couple of years ago when you were getting ready to fight (Daniel) Ponce (de Leon) and we were in the locker room and you were all nervous about going the distance? You think I forgot that conversation you had with me? I had to explain to him how to go 10 rounds without mentally killing yourself. He gets to the fight and throws about 16 punches for 10 rounds and gets the decision. My man, you’re going 12 Saturday. I’m going to beat your ass.
Malignaggi is no stranger to going to the scorecards in a 12-round fight as he has done so seven times. He'll have to survive Broner's ample punching power, but it can be argued that he has the advantage the longer the fight goes.
Malignaggi's Hometown Advantage
One advantage that shouldn't be overlooked on Malignaggi's part is the fact that he will be fighting in front of his hometown fans. Malignaggi is extremely popular in Brooklyn, so the fans will be firmly behind him. Although that can do more bad than good at times as it creates extra pressure, Malignaggi seems to be the type of fighter who thrives off the support of the crowd.
This fight will mark Malignaggi's second in a row at the Barclays Center as he defeated Pablo Cesar Cano by split decision back in October. Malignaggi didn't exactly put on a great show, so the fans were less than thrilled. That is something that Malignaggi must avoid on Saturday. Even if Malignaggi wants to slow the pace and muddle things during the fight, though, Broner probably won't allow it to happen due to his aggressive style.
When push comes to shove, this is the biggest fight of Broner's career thus far and he will have to participate in a hostile environment. Perhaps he has the nerves of steel necessary to deal with that, but he's only 23 years old and it's possible that the moment will be too big for him. If that is the case, then Malignaggi should be able to gain the upper hand.
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