Floyd Mayweather's fight against Saul Alvarez is gaining a lot of attention, and rightfully so. But let's be honest: Money is going to take this one easily.
After all, Alvarez is mostly a one-trick pony. He's a power puncher, and a good one at that. Three of his last five fights have been decided by KO, and he connects on 52 percent of his power punches.
But there's good news for those in the Mayweather camp—that's about all Canelo does. His stamina goes down as bouts drag on, and he's far too susceptible to getting hit.
That means that all Mayweather has to do is outlast Canelo. How does he do that? It's pretty simple.
Be Defensive
Money's skill as a defensive boxer is legendary. In fact, he may very well be the best defensive boxer ever. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Mayweather's opponents hit on just 21 percent of their power punches. That almost immediately takes away Canelo's best trait. Mayweather, with his shoulder roll and his savvy, will be able to avoid most of the major punches from Canelo. After all, in the last 10 bouts, also according to ESPN Stats & Info, Money's opponents have landed just an average of eight punches per round.
Mayweather may have to take some hits. But as long as he doesn't take the big punch—the knockout punch—then he'll be able to stay in the game.
Tire Canelo Out
Canelo has a chance to win if he lands an early KO, but the longer the bout goes on, the more tired Canelo gets. The longer the fight, the more wild Alvarez's punches get. Keep in mind that Mayweather is tough to hit in general. So the more rounds this goes, the harder it will be for Canelo to land a punishing blow.
Mayweather's stamina is not an issue. In fact, it plays into his hands if the fight goes on for a long time. Mayweather doesn't really knock guys out—less than half of his victories have come via the KO.
Money is truly a fighter's fighter, a guy who is more comfortable winning with savvy and skill than pure power. He's refined and can outlast nearly anyone. If he can get Canelo swinging early and often, it will be a quick fight.
Final Thoughts
Canelo will win if he gets an early knockout—perhaps no later than the third round. But if the match lasts beyond that, then Mayweather will have an easy victory. All he has to do is stay on the defensive, avoiding any major punches, and then just ride it out to the end. It may not be pretty, and it may not be anything exceptional. But it will be a surefire way for Money to ensure victory. The longer he stays in, the more tired Alvarez will get. Mayweather will probably win this one in decision, and it will be a relatively easy one for the judges to make.
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