On its face, it seems nearly impossible for Saul "Canelo" Alvarez to pull off the upset against Floyd "Money" Mayweather.
After all, Mayweather has never lost in his career. Twenty-six of his 44 career victories have been knockouts. He is the undisputed best boxer of his generation.
But at 36-years-old, he may be showing signs of slowing down. Money has just one knockout in his last five fights. Is age getting to him?
If so, then there's a real opportunity for Canelo. Canelo is a power puncher. He has 21 knockouts in 43 career fights, and three of his last five fights have been decided by KO.
Canelo needs to connect on his punches in order to win. He has connected on 52 percent of his power punches.
That's why Canelo needs to come out swinging. Stamina is not his strong suit, as he gets a bit weaker and becomes sloppier as a fight drags on. Money, who is one of the smartest fighters ever, will pounce the second Canelo starts to fade.
In addition, Canelo needs to be aggressive. Mayweather is an incredible defensive boxer. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Mayweather's opponents have just a 21 percent power punch contact rate. Getting into a prolonged battle plays exactly into Mayweather's hands.
Mayweather wants this fight to drag on. He wants Canelo to get tired, and he wants Canelo to start missing on his punches. It's quite simple—the longer this fight goes on, the less chance Canelo has to win.
Canelo needs to realize this and attack. He's the best power puncher out there. And while Mayweather will use his legendary shoulder roll to deflect blows, Alvarez needs to keep going. The only way for Canelo to win this bout is to score an early KO.
It's a pretty risky strategy I'm recommending for Canelo. Essentially, he needs to give Mayweather all he has in the first few rounds and hope that Money doesn't pull a rope-a-dope type move.
It will definitely be tough. Mayweather is one of the best defensive boxers ever, and his counterpunch skills are legendary. He connects on 41 percent of his punches, but even more impressively, according to ESPN Stats & Info, his opponents have landed an average of just eight punches per round in the last 10 bouts.
But Canelo is, without a doubt, the best power puncher out there, and he could easily KO Money with a single blow. Canelo needs to come out and land as many punches as possible early on. The more blows he lands, the better chance he has of landing a knockout punch.
Can Canelo complete this "go big or go home" strategy? Can he really knock Mayweather off his throne? The odds aren't great. Mayweather is clearly the better overall boxer, and he obviously has much more experience under the bright lights.
But it's possible. He needs to come out aggressive, hit on as many power punches as possible and KO Money before the fight becomes a tactical bout.
It's power against savvy, and if Canelo wants to pull off a truly remarkable upset, he needs to hope his incredible power punches do the trick.
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