For a fighter who is 31-1-1 with 23 knockouts, Brandon Rios is a shockingly big underdog to Manny Pacquiao for their fight this Saturday in Macau, China.
There are, of course, legitimate reasons for Bovada making Rios a +350 underdog.
Despite coming up on the wrong end of two straight fights, Pac-Man remains one of the most feared men in boxing. He may not be in his prime anymore, but he looked close to his best despite losing his last two bouts.
Over the years, Pac-Man has proven he has the power to beat elite smaller fighters and the speed to beat the best bigger fighters. His laundry list of victims is extensive and impressive. Rios cannot boast the same.
The 27-year-old has yet to fight anyone near Pacquiao's caliber.
On top of that, Bam Bam is coming off the first loss of his career, and his straight-ahead brawling style is one Pacquiao has proven he can feast on.
All of this said, Rios is a talented, dangerous fighter with a knockout percentage higher than Pacquiao's. If he can fight the perfect fight, he can win. Let's take a look at the steps he has to take to further Pac-Man's losing streak:
Be Accurate
Bam Bam has the power to hang with Pacquiao. In fact, if the two are trading punches, the bigger Rios would have the advantage.
The problem is, however, Pacquiao has far more speed and better footwork. Pacquiao is a brawler, but he has shown the movement that can make powerful opponents come up empty handed. This leaves his opponents vulnerable, and Pac-Man has the hands to make them pay.
Rios' style dictates that he will come straight ahead and look to punish Pacquiao.
He has to make sure to land his opening punch. Pacquiao will be looking to work the angles and will be ready to strike.
Rios can't allow Pacquiao to watch him throw punches. He has to make him feel the punches he throws.
Start off Strong
Even a fighter as accomplished as Pacquiao can have his confidence rattled. There's no getting around the fact that Pac-Man has lost two straight—the last one was in brutal fashion.
There is no way Pacquiao can have that memory completely out of his mind as he steps into the ring.
Rios has to bring failure to the forefront of Pacquiao's mind by inflicting some early damage. At that point, it would be natural for Pacquiao to start questioning if he still has what it takes to beat a fighter like Rios.
Conversely, if Rios can't rattle Pac-Man early, Pacquiao's confidence will only grow, and he will become tougher to defeat as the night progresses.
Don't Be Afraid of Counterpunches
As I mentioned above, it is not Rios' style to look for the counterpunch. Over the course of his career, Bam Bam has been far too busy throwing punches to have any of them qualify as a counterattack.
It would be foolish for Rios to completely overhaul his style, but the execution of a bit more patience will pay dividends.
My guess is that Pacquiao is going to be hungry for a knockout. He hasn't had a stoppage since 2009, and he needs to build the buzz back around his career.
In his last fight, he was as aggressive as ever against Juan Manuel Marquez. It was working great, until Marquez knocked him out:
...with a counterpunch.
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