Not so long ago, Manny Pacquiao was considered by many to be the finest pound-for-pound boxer on the planet. Then he lost a controversial split decision to Timothy Bradley and had his clock cleaned in a knockout loss to Juan Manuel Marquez.
Now Pacquiao faces Brandon Rios in Macau, China on Nov. 23 for what amounts to a tune-up fight, and a defeat in that match would spell the end of Pacquiao's career.
Pacman owns a 54-5-2 record as a fighter, but a sixth loss would be a death knell. Though he boasts 38 career victories by knockout, he has gone six straight fights without such a win and has not looked strong in the ring in over three years.
As his trainer, Hall of Famer Freddie Roach, told BoxingScene.com about the Rios match: "If it does not go well, we will seriously talk about his retirement and possibly going to politics. It's really hard to say until we see the fight, but I will be the first one to tell him to retire, and we have an agreement that as soon as I tell him that, he will retire."
So that's the deal. Win or go home...forever. However, Roach also added, "I don't see him slipping in the ring at all." Pacman is likely to get back on the good side of the win-loss column, but he cannot afford any slips whatsoever. Rios owns a 31-1-1 record and he's coming off the first loss of his career at the hands of Mike Alvarado.
Rios will have a very slight one-inch advantage in height and reach over Pacman, but the age gap is the most significant difference. The 34-year-old Pacquiao is a strong favorite to beat the 27-year-old Rios, and failing to do so would be a damning indictment of his declining skill. Vegas odds have Pacman as a heavy favorite at minus-500 (meaning a $50 bet would earn you $10); Rios is staring at plus-350 (per Bovada).
Pacman remains the most versatile active fighter and has held world titles in a stunning eight different weight classes: flyweight, super bantamweight, featherweight, junior lightweight, lightweight, junior welterweight, welterweight and super welterweight. That means he has been a world champion fighting at under 112 pounds (in 1998) and as high as 154 pounds when he defeated Antonio Margarito in 2010.
Pacquiao does not even measure 5'7" yet is still one of the most fearsome fighters in the sport. However, he has fallen off the form that placed him as hands down the most dominant. In late October, The Ring, a magazine that unabashedly touts itself as "the bible of boxing," ranked Pacman seventh among all boxers pound-for-pound. He sits behind the two men who have beaten him in consecutive fights, as well as Sergio Martinez, Wladimir Klitschko, Andre Ward and, of course, Floyd Mayweather Jr.
After Pacman whipped Miguel Cotto by TKO in late 2009, the next logical step was an epic bout against "Money" Mayweather. It seemed that a fight had been arranged for March of 2010, but what followed was a more torturous will-they-or-won't-they drama than Mulder and Scully in The X-Files.
In the end, the bout was torpedoed by Mayweather's insistence that Olympics-style drug testing be used instead of the normal procedure, which would entail random testing within 30 days of the fight. Pacman refused to give blood within that window, raising suspicions that the Philippine pugilist was doping in some manner.
Eventually, Pacquiao made clear he would accept nothing more than a 24-hour window around the fight for testing, fearing it would weaken him, and promoter Bob Arum was forced to cancel the bout and deprive boxing fans of the marquee matchup.
As Roach told Lance Pugmire of the Los Angeles Times, "Giving blood right before the fight could be like having sex right before the fight. It’s 100 percent mental. If it’s in your head that it weakens you, then it will weaken you."
In May 2010, Pacquiao won election to the House of Representatives in the Philippines, which successfully shifted focus from the canceled fight. This also coincided with a marked decline in Pacman's prowess in the ring.
Pacquiao looked somewhat punchless in an ugly win over a 39-year-old Shane Mosley in May of 2011. Then he barely survived a controversial win by decision over Marquez six months later. By early 2012, Pacquiao had been unseated by Mayweather for The Ring's No. 1 pound-for-pound boxer (per Chris Williams of Boxingnews24.com).
Pacman showed the wisdom in that demotion by losing his next two fights. While a potential Pacquiao-Mayweather match is not completely out of the question at some point in the future—as suggested by Gareth A. Davies of The Telegraph—that road begins by first beating another boxer.
If Pacman cannot get back on track by pummeling Rios, then he must retire as agreed with Roach, which would make for an ignominious end to a storied career.
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